IMF spring meeting Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Пределы экономического оптимизма

ВАШИНГТОН (округ Колумбия) – С началом ежегодных весенних заседаний Всемирного банка и Международного валютного фонда будущее мировой экономики кажется более радужным, чем раньше. Данные международные финансовые институты и множество организаций частного сектора прогнозируют куда более стремительный рост в этом году, чем в 2016-м. Обоснован ли такой жизнерадостный взгляд?

До недавнего времени большинство макроэкономических показателей регулярно указывали на снижение прогнозируемого роста. Теперь кажется, что происходит противоположное. В недавнем ведущем докладе МВФ были увеличены прогнозные показатели роста мирового ВВП на 2017 год с 3,4% до 3,5%, в сравнении с ростом на 3,1%, который предполагался в 2016 году.

Подобным образом мультииндикатор Индекс восстановления мировой экономики TIGER Брукингского института и «Файненшл таймс» указывает на «всеобъемлющее и стабильное» восстановление экономики. Согласно этим прогнозам – основанным на моделях, новых данных и суждениях определенных институтов или прогнозистов, – Соединенные Штаты, Великобритания и Япония вносят самый весомый вклад в стимулирование роста. Индия тоже находится среди тех, кто работает особенно хорошо.

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