IMF spring meeting Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

经济乐观主义的限度

华盛顿—在世界银行和国际货币基金组织(IMF)春季年会召开之际,世界经济似乎表现出一段时间以来最光明的前景。国际金融机构,更不用说许多私人部门行动方,纷纷预测今年增长率比2016年大幅提高。它们的看多胜算如何?

直到最近,大部分宏观经济指标还表明应该调低增长预期。如今正在发生相反的情况。IMF的最新旗舰报告将其2017年世界GDP增长预测从3.4%提高到3.5%,而其对2016年的预测值为3.1%。

类似地,多维度指标Brookings – FT TIGER指数显示将出现“广泛且稳定”的复苏。根据这些预测——它们基于模型、新数据以及某些机构或预测者的判断——美国、英国和日本是增长向好的主要动力。印度也表现相当出色。

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