IMF World Bank Meetings Zach Gibson/Stringer

Falsche Frühlingsgefühle bei den Frühjahrstagungen?

WASHINGTON, DC – Mit derselben Verlässlichkeit, mit der die Schwalben nach San Juan Capistrano schwärmen, versammeln sich in jedem Frühjahr Bürokraten aus aller Welt in Washington, D.C. zu den Jahrestagungen des Internationalen Währungsfonds und der Weltbank, wo sie Informationen über ihre lokalen Volkswirtschaften und voraussichtlichen politischen Strategien austauschen. Und weil sie dabei im Laufe der Woche an einer Vielzahl von Veranstaltungen teilnehmen, entwickelt sich ein Hallraum, der eine allgemeine Wahrnehmung über den Zustand der Weltwirtschaft hervorbringt. Diese Wahrnehmung beeinflusst dann überall auf der Welt die politischen Entscheidungen.

Diesmal war die Stimmung positiv. Laut Mitarbeitern des IWF soll, wie dessen World Economic Outlook zu entnehmen ist, das reale BIP in den hochentwickelten Volkswirtschaften in diesem und im nächsten Jahr um rund 2% steigen. Dies würde die Arbeitslosenquote unter 6% ziehen, was sich nicht allzu sehr von ihrem Niveau vor der Finanzkrise von 2008 unterscheidet. Deflation oder unerwünschte Desinflation werden jetzt nur noch im Rückspiegel wahrgenommen, und die Verbraucherpreisinflation stabilisiert sich derzeit bei etwa 2%, dem Zielwert der meisten wichtigen Notenbanken.

Doch wie jeder Bewohner Neu-Englands weiß, bringen Aprilschauer nicht immer Maiblumen hervor; manchmal bringen sie lediglich weitere, kältere Regenfälle. Und auch wenn wir den Tagungsteilnehmern nicht die gute Laune verderben möchten, fürchten wir doch, dass sie die Stabilisierung der Wirtschaftslage überbewerten. Blickt man über die reinen Zahlen hinaus, gibt es wenig Hinweise, dass die grundlegenden Probleme behoben sind.

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