IMF World Bank Meetings Zach Gibson/Stringer

ربيع زائف في اجتماعات الربيع

واشنطن العاصمة ــ في كل ربيع، يندفع البيروقراطيون الدوليون أفواجا إلى واشنطن العاصمة، كما تندفع أسراب السنونو إلى إرسالية سان خوان كابيسترانو في كاليفورنيا، لحضور الاجتماعات السنوية لصندوق النقد الدولي والبنك الدولي، حيث يتبادلون المعلومات حول اقتصاداتهم المحلية وآفاق السياسات. ولأن هؤلاء المسؤولين يحضرون مناسبات متعددة على مدار الأسبوع، ينشأ ما يشبه غرفة الصدى، والتي يخرج عنها تصور عام لحالة الاقتصاد العالمي. ثم يتأثر صناع السياسات في مختلف أنحاء العالم بهذا التصور.

وهذه المرة، كان الشعور إيجابيا. فوفقا لما ذكره موظفو صندوق النقد الدولي في تقرير آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي، من المنتظر أن يتوسع الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي بنحو 2% في الاقتصادات المتقدمة هذا العام والعام الذي يليه. وهذا كفيل بخفض معدل البطالة إلى أقل من 6%، وهو ما لا يختلف كثيرا عن المعدل قبل الأزمة المالية في عام 2008. والآن أصبح الانكماش أو تباطؤ التضخم ذكرى من الماضي، مع استقرار تضخم أسعار المستهلك عند مستوى 2% تقريبا، وهو الهدف الذي تسعى أغلب البنوك المركزية إلى تحقيقه.

ولكن كما يعلم أي مقيم في نيو إنجلاند، فإن أمطار إبريل لا تجلب دوما زهور مايو؛ بل وربما تجلب في بعض الأحيان المزيد من الأمطار الأكثر برودة. ونخشى أن المسؤولين يشعرون بارتياح مبالغ فيه إزاء استقرار الأوضاع الاقتصادية. ولكن بعيدا عن الأرقام في العناوين الرئيسية، لن نجد أدلة حقيقية على حل المشاكل الأساسية.

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