Christine Legarde Thierry Monasse/ZumaPress

«Трудные решения» МВФ по Греции

АФИНЫ – Главный экономист Международного валютного фонда Оливье Бланшар недавно задал простой и важный вопрос: «В какой степени урегулирование должна провести Греция, а в какой – ее официальные кредиторы?» Но это поднимает еще два вопроса: в какой степени Греция уже провела урегулирование? И дали ли ее кредиторы вообще хоть что-нибудь?

В мае 2010 года правительство Греции согласилось на финансовое урегулирование в размере 16% от ВВП в период с 2010 до 2013 года. В результате Греция, имевшая первичный бюджетный дефицит (с учетом процентов по долгу) в размере более 10% ВВП, в прошлом году вышла на первичный баланс – однозначно крупнейший такой сдвиг во всей посткризисной Европе.

МВФ первоначально планировал, что реальный (с поправкой на инфляцию) ВВП Греции снизится примерно на 5% в 2010-2011 годах, стабилизируется в 2012-м и после этого начнет расти. В действительности же ВВП упал на 25%, и его уровень не восстановился. И, поскольку номинальный ВВП в 2014 году упал и продолжает падать, соотношение долг/ВВП, которое должно было стабилизироваться три года назад, продолжает увеличиваться.

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