Christine Legarde Thierry Monasse/ZumaPress

„Schwierige Entscheidungen“ für den IWF zu Griechenland

ATHEN – Der Chefökonom des Internationalen Währungsfonds, Olivier Blanchard, hat vor kurzem eine einfache, aber wichtige Frage gestellt: „Wie große Anpassungen muss Griechenland vornehmen und wie große Anpassungen seine offiziellen Gläubiger?“ Freilich zieht dies zwei weitere Fragen nach sich: Wie große Anpassungen hat Griechenland bereits umgesetzt? Und haben seine Gläubiger irgendwelche Zugeständnisse gemacht?

Im Mai 2010 stimmte die griechische Regierung einer Haushaltsanpassung innerhalb des Zeitrahmens von 2010-2013 zu, die 16% vom BIP entsprach. Infolgedessen verwandelte sich das primäre Haushaltsdefizit (das noch nicht die Zinszahlungen auf die Schulden umfasst) Griechenlands von mehr als 10% vom BIP im letzten Jahr in einen ausgeglichenen Primärhaushalt – der deutlich größte derartige Umschwung im Europa nach der Krise überhaupt.

Der IWF prognostizierte ursprünglich, dass Griechenlands reales (inflationsbereinigtes) BIP während des Zeitraums von 2010-2011 um rund 5% zurückgehen, sich 2012 stabilisieren und danach wachsen würde. Tatsächlich fiel das reale BIP um 25% und erholte sich nicht wieder. Und weil das nominale BIP 2014 gefallen ist und weiter fällt, steigt die Schuldenquote, die sich angeblich vor drei Jahren stabilisieren sollte, weiter an.

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