Christine Legarde Thierry Monasse/ZumaPress

Au tour du FMI d’effectuer des « choix difficiles » en faveur de la Grèce

ATHÈNES – L’économiste en chef du Fonds monétaire international, Olivier Blanchard, a récemment soulevé une question à la fois simple et importante : « Quelle doit-être la mesure des ajustements auxquels il incombe à la Grèce de procéder, et quels doivent-être les efforts fournis par ses créanciers publics ? » Une interrogation qui soulève deux questions supplémentaires : quels ont d’ores et déjà été les ajustements effectués par la Grèce ? Et ses créanciers lui ont-ils à ce jour concédé quoi que ce soit ?

En mai 2010, le gouvernement grec a consenti à un ajustement budgétaire s’élevant à 16 % de son PIB sur la période 2010 à 2013. La Grèce est ainsi parvenue à passer d’un déficit budgétaire primaire (exclusion faite des paiements d’intérêts sur la dette) de plus de 10 % du PIB à un solde primaire l’an dernier – soit la plus importante inversion observée en Europe depuis la crise.

Le FMI avait initialement prévu que le PIB réel de la Grèce (ajusté à l’inflation) subirait une contraction d’environ 5 % sur la période 2010-2011, qu’il se stabiliserait en 2012, et qu’il se remettrait ensuite à augmenter. En réalité, ce PIB réel a chuté de 25 %, et n’a jamais pu remonter la pente. De plus, dans la mesure où le PIB nominal a diminué à partir de 2014, et continue de décliner, le ratio dette/PIB, qui était censé se stabiliser il y a trois ans, continue d’augmenter.

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