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¿Una falsa alarma del Fondo?

LONDRES – Si uno le pide a Google que encuentre el texto del Informe sobre la Estabilidad Financiera Mundial del Fondo Monetario Internacional para abril de 2006, el buscador convenientemente pregunta si uno, en realidad, no está buscando la versión de abril de 2016. Estoy seguro de que el FMI nunca intentaría manipular un motor de búsqueda, pero imagino que los responsables de los asuntos públicos del Fondo están felices si la menor cantidad de gente posible puede acceder a la versión de 2006. No fue una de las publicaciones más clarividentes del FMI.

El informe, publicado justo cuando empezaban a surgir las primeras dudas sobre el mercado de hipotecas de alto riesgo en Estados Unidos, presentaba una visión alentadora del presente y del futuro. Los autores en efecto se referían a si los desequilibrios globales, los derivados y las hipotecas de alto riesgo planteaban una amenaza para la estabilidad financiera. Pero les gustaba lo que veían.

En el mercado hipotecario, el FMI veía perspectivas de un aterrizaje suave. Creía que los desequilibrios globales se irían resolviendo gradualmente. Y elogiaba la capacidad de los mercados y compañías financieras de Estados Unidos a la hora de crear instrumentos innovadores para "atraer y sustentar altos niveles de ingresos de capital". Por cierto, se describía a los mercados estadounidenses como "profundos, flexibles, sofisticados y, en líneas generales, bien regulados".

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