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Le Fonds qui criait au loup…

LONDRES – Si l'on cherche sur Google le Rapport du FMI d'avril 2006 sur la stabilité financière dans le monde, le moteur de recherche a l'amabilité de demander si l'on ne veut pas en réalité le rapport d'avril 2016. Je suis sûr que le FMI ne souhaite en aucun cas manipuler un moteur de recherche, mais j'imagine que ses responsables de la communication préfèrent que le moins de monde possible accède à son rapport de 2006, car il n'y fait guère preuve d'anticipation.

Publié immédiatement après l'apparition des premiers doutes sur le marché du crédit immobilier aux USA, il présentait un point de vue optimiste du présent et du futur. Les auteurs y évoquaient les déséquilibres mondiaux, les produits dérivés et les prêts immobiliers à risque en se demandant s'ils menaçaient la stabilité financière. Mais leurs conclusions étaient rassurantes.

En ce qui  concerne le marché du crédit immobilier, le FMI envisageait un atterrissage en douceur. Il croyait que les déséquilibres mondiaux allaient s'atténuer progressivement. Et il soulignait la capacité des entreprises et des marchés américains à créer des instruments innovateurs pour "attirer et maintenir des flux importants de capitaux entrants". Il décrivait ces marchés comme "importants, flexibles, sophistiqués et d'une manière générale bien régulés."

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