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喊“狼来了”的IMF?

伦敦—如果你通过谷歌寻找2006年4月的国际货币基金组织(IMF)的全球金融稳定报告,谷歌会很贴心地询问你要找的是否是2016年4月的版本。我肯定IMF不会试图操纵搜索引擎,但我想,尽可能地让最少的人获得2006版会让IMF公关官员感到很高兴。这是IMF最拙劣的预测报告之一。

2006年4月的金融稳定报告发行正逢美国次级按揭市场质疑声音刚刚兴起之时,该报告对现状和未来表示非常乐观。作者确实讨论了全球失衡、衍生品和次级按揭是否对金融稳定构成威胁的问题。但他们对所见十分欣喜。

对按揭市场,IMF认为会出现软着陆。它相信全球失衡会逐渐消失。它还赞美了美国市场和金融企业创造创新型工具以“吸引和保持高资本流入水平”的能力。事实上,美国市场被描述为“深度、灵活、成熟,总体而言监管良好。”

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