greece NurPhoto/Getty Images

Uma ponte do FMI com ligação a algures, para a Grécia?

ZURIQUE – O Fundo Monetário Internacional ressuscitou uma velha técnica – utilizada na década de 1980, durante a crise da dívida latino-americana – que permitiria à Grécia evitar um padrão de pagamento da dívida, no próximo mês, aos credores europeus. A prorrogação também dá ao FMI e aos seus parceiros europeus tempo para resolverem as suas diferenças técnicas em relação às perspetivas difíceis de crescimento e financeiras do país. Mas o compromisso sofisticado do Fundo ainda deixa a Grécia sob a sombra de um excesso de dívida enorme; reduzi-la requer que a Europa encontre uma maneira de deixar de lado as políticas nacionais e aja com base na lógica e na necessidade económicas.

A Europa e o FMI têm sido incapazes de conciliar os dois pontos de vista da sustentabilidade da dívida da Grécia, com as diferenças dos dois lados a transbordar para o domínio público. Guiadas principalmente por uma análise do fluxo de caixa, as autoridades europeias argumentam que as taxas de juro baixas e prazos longos tornaram a dívida da nação sustentável. Mas o Fundo repara que, em quase 200% do PIB, o stock da dívida da Grécia dissuade o investimento e os fluxos de entrada de capital. Para o FMI, a redução significativa da dívida é fundamental para gerar a confiança e a credibilidade necessárias para a Grécia quebrar o ciclo de um período prolongado de empobrecimento.

Esta não é a única área de desacordo entre os dois principais credores da Grécia. Eles também divergem no assunto sobre o realismo de algumas projeções económicas decisivas, incluindo a relação importante entre o crescimento e o orçamento do governo, com a Europa a adotar uma perspetiva muito mais otimista.

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