greece NurPhoto/Getty Images

Un ponte per la Grecia?

ZURIGO – Il Fondo monetario internazionale ha riesumato una vecchia tecnica – comunemente utilizzata negli anni ottanta del secolo scorso durante la crisi del debito in America Latina – che il mese prossimo potrebbe evitare alla Grecia di diventare insolvente nei confronti dei creditori europei. Il rinvio dà anche il tempo all’Fmi e ai suoi partner europei di chiarire le rispettive divergenze in merito alle previsioni di crescita e di bilancio di questo paese in difficoltà. Ma l’elegante compromesso del Fondo lascia comunque la Grecia all’ombra di un onere debitorio enorme, per ridurre il quale l’Europa dovrà mettere da parte la politica nazionale e agire in base alle logiche e alle necessità dell’economia.       

L’Europa e l’Fmi sono stati finora incapaci di conciliare le loro diverse posizioni sulla sostenibilità del debito greco, e le loro differenze sono ormai di dominio pubblico. Guidate principalmente da un’analisi dei flussi di cassa, le autorità europee sostengono che i bassi tassi di interesse e i lunghi periodi di rimborso hanno reso sostenibile il debito ellenico. D’altro canto, il Fondo osserva che, avendo raggiunto quasi il 200 per cento del Pil, lo stock di debito della Grecia scoraggia gli investimenti e gli afflussi di capitale. Per l’Fmi, una riduzione significativa del debito è fondamentale per ripristinare la fiducia e la credibilità necessarie a far uscire la Grecia da un lungo periodo di impoverimento.      

Questo non è l’unico aspetto su cui i due maggiori creditori del paese si trovano in disaccordo. Essi divergono anche sul realismo di alcune proiezioni economiche cruciali, tra cui l’importante nesso tra crescita e bilancio dello stato, su cui l’Europa appare più ottimista.  

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