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Pour une résolution définitive de la crise grecque

ZURICH – Pour éviter que le mois prochain la Grèce se trouve en défaut de remboursement de la dette vis à vis de ses créanciers européens, le FMI en revient à une vieille méthode qu'il a utilisée fréquemment lors de la crise de la dette en Amérique latine pendant les années 1980. Ce sursis donnerait aussi au FMI et à ses partenaires européens un répit pour traiter leurs différences d'approche en ce qui concerne la croissance et les perspectives budgétaires de ce pays toujours embourbé dans une crise financière. Mais le compromis élégant du Fonds laisse la Grèce sous la menace du surendettement. Réduire son fardeau suppose que l'Europe agisse en fonction de la logique et de la nécessité économiques et non pas en fonction des politiques nationales des pays membres. 

L'Europe et le FMI ne sont pas parvenus à concilier leurs différences de point de vue sur la viabilité de la dette grecque, au point qu'elles s'affichent maintenant au grand jour. Guidés essentiellement par une analyse des flux financiers, les autorités européennes considèrent que la faiblesse des taux d'intérêt et les longues maturités ont rendu la dette grecque soutenable. Mais le Fonds souligne que le niveau de la dette de la Grèce (presque le double de son PIB) dissuade l'investissement et l'arrivée de capitaux. Il estime qu'une réduction significative de cette dette est cruciale pour susciter la confiance et restaurer la crédibilité nécessaire pour extraire la Grèce d'une longue période d'appauvrissement.

Ce n'est pas le seul point de désaccord entre l'Europe et le FMI, les deux principaux créanciers de la Grèce. Ils sont aussi en désaccord sur le réalisme de certaines prévisions économiques majeures, dont la relation étroite qui existe entre la croissance et le budget du pays, l'Europe adoptant une perspective beaucoup plus optimiste que le Fonds.

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