短缺画面

纽黑文-我们都看到过的格林兰的冰冠因为全球变暖而消融进海里的电视画面——间接及在心理上——可能是造成石油及其它商品的高价的部分的原因吗?

对当今的短缺和商品高价的解释专注于新兴国家的爆炸式增长,特别是中国和印度的增长,并认为这两个国家对稀缺资源的需求是“无底洞”。但是,心理学在投机市场上也会起作用,或许格林兰冰川的消融使所有其它的事物——土地,水,甚至是新鲜空气——也都快用完了似乎成为事实。

我们来进行一个个案研究,最近一次总体性的商品价格繁荣-崩溃周期导致商品价格从20世纪60年代到20世纪80年代普遍上涨(虽然涨幅或大或小),然后开始普遍下跌直到20世纪90年代才结束。或许画面和实质在解释这一现象上同样重要。

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