Trump with foreign diplomates 17 january Pool/Pool

Les illusions qui font grimper les prix des actifs américains

NEW HAVEN - Les marchés spéculatifs ont toujours été exposés aux illusions. Mais percevoir la folie des marchés n'offre aucun avantage évident pour prévoir les résultats, parce que les modulations de la force de l'illusion sont difficiles à prévoir.

Aux États-Unis, deux illusions ont été importantes dernièrement sur les marchés financiers. L'une est l'image soigneusement entretenue selon laquelle le président élu Donald Trump est un génie des affaires qui peut appliquer ses talents de négociateur pour rendre sa grandeur à l'Amérique. L'autre est une illusion auto-produite : un Dow Jones proche des 20 000 points. L'indice Dow Jones est supérieur à 19 000 points depuis le mois de novembre et d'innombrables nouveaux articles portent sur son flirt avec la barrière des 20 000 points, qui pourrait être franchie d'ici la publication de cet article. Quoi qu'il arrive, le Dow Jones à 20 000 points aura toujours un impact psychologique sur les marchés.

Trump n'a jamais été très clair sur ses intentions futures en tant que président. Les réductions d'impôts sont clairement sur son ordre du jour et le stimulus pourrait entraîner une hausse du prix des actifs. Un impôt sur les sociétés réduit est naturellement censé entraîner une hausse des prix des actions, alors que des réductions de l'impôt sur le revenu pourraient entraîner une hausse des prix du logement (qui pourrait être compensée par d'autres modifications du système fiscal).

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