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推升美国资产价格的幻觉

纽黑文—投机性市场总是容易受到幻觉的影响。但看清市场中的愚蠢并不能为预见结果提供明显的优势,因为幻觉力量的变化难以预测。

在美国,最近金融市场中有两股重要的幻觉。其一是一个精心培育的感觉:当选总统唐纳德·特朗普是一位商界天才,能够用其做交易的技能让美国再次伟大。其二是自然发生的幻觉:道指逼近20,000点。11月,道琼斯工业平均指数已站上19,000点,数不清的新闻报道都聚焦于它向20,0000点的冲击——也许这篇评论发表的时候已经实现了。无论如何,道指20,000点都将对市场产生心理冲击。

特朗普从未对如何当总统有过明确且一致的想法。减税显然在其日程中,刺激则可能带来资产价格上涨。降低公司税自然会被认为将推高股价,而降低个人所得税可能导致更高的住房价格(尽管其效果可能被税制的其他变化抵消)。

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