La tormenta ignorada

La reunión más reciente de ministros de finanzas del G7 en octubre fue un total fracaso. En lo único que se pusieron de acuerdo fue en conminar a China a que revalorara su divisa. El valor del yuan, aunque importante, no es la cuestión central a que se enfrenta la economía mundial actualmente. El verdadero problema inmediato se relaciona con lo que está sucediendo y lo que va a suceder con el dólar. Pero la dificultad principal para la prosperidad tiene que ver con las bases del sistema financiero global.

¿Qué tan bajo caerá el dólar? ¿Cómo podemos corregir los desequilibrios de las economías –China, seguida de muy lejos por Europa—que exportan masivamente a Estados Unidos o a la zona del dólar? ¿Acaso el mercado hipotecario estadounidense, que se prevé que empeore aún más en 2008, se calmará después o contaminará al sistema financiero internacional en su conjunto? ¿Existe el riesgo de que los precios del petróleo en aumento –que ya están alcanzando récords históricos—provoquen suspensión del pago de deuda en todo el mundo? La serie de informes de ganancias de los mayores bancos de Estados Unidos muestran que hay motivos reales para la preocupación.

Las condiciones en que se encuentra la economía mundial actualmente son muy extrañas. No hay grandes cracs pero sí varias caídas y crisis. Los banqueros centrales tratan de dar calma y tranquilidad, pero no son muy convincentes. Los gobiernos guardan silencio y actúan, más o menos, como si nada importante estuviera sucediendo. Y, según muchos economistas, comentaristas y periodistas, las preocupaciones de hoy son dificultades temporales que se pueden resolver. No se aproxima ninguna crisis general.

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