Doucement vers la Crise ?

La dernière réunion du G7, le rassemblement des 7 pays industriels les plus développés de la planète, à Washington le 19 octobre dernier, fut un échec complet.

Sur le plan financier on ne s’est mis d’accord que sur une admonestation à la Chine, pour lui enjoindre de réévaluer sa monnaie, mais sur rien d’autre. Certes le problème de la réévaluation du Yuan est important, mais il n’est tout de même pas dominant dans la situation actuelle.

Jusqu’où va aller la dévalorisation du dollar ? Comment éviter l’asphyxie des économies qui exportent massivement vers les Etats-Unis ou en zone dollar, la Chine d’abord et l’Europe loin derrière mais en seconde position ? La crise des prêts hypothécaires à risques américains, dont on sait qu’elle connaîtra une aggravation en 2008, a-t-elle chance de se calmer ensuite ou va-t-elle contaminer l’ensemble du système financier international ? La hausse attendue du prix du baril de pétrole – il est déjà à son maximum historique – risque-t-elle de faire s’effondrer le château de cartes que constitue l’état actuel de l’endettement dans le monde ? Déjà en ce début Novembre nous apprenons que les plus grandes banques américaines sont touchées.

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