对风暴视而不见

西方七国集团最近在十月份召开的会议毫无成果。会议所达成的唯一的一致就是劝告中国对其货币重新估价。人民币的价格尽管重要,但并不是当今世界经济所面临的中心问题。真正急迫的关切是美元的动向。但是,事关经济繁荣的实际问题关系到全球金融体系的基础。

美元会走低多少?在向美国或者美元区出口上中国把欧洲远远甩在后面,我们如何解决这一不平衡问题?美国的房贷市场预计在2008年变得更为困难,它是否会随后平缓下来,还是把整个国际金融体系搅乱?不断上升的石油价格已经达到了历史最高点,是否会有造成世界范围的进一步拖欠债务问题的风险?美国最大的各家银行纷纷做出的收益报告表明确实存在担忧。

当今世界经济状况非常奇怪。没有巨大的冲击,但是却有不同的下降和危机。中央银行试图平息和安定市场,但是并不令人信服。各国政府保持沉默,好像什么重要事也没有发生一样。而且,根据许多经济学家、评论员或者记者的观点,现今的担心只是暂时的、可以解决的困难。并不存在总体的危机。

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