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If Not Now, Then When?

The last two years have witnessed a cascade of interconnected crises: financial panic, rising food and oil prices, climate shocks, a flu pandemic, and more. As world leaders arrive for the G-8 Summit in Italy, they will have to update their politics to grapple with problems that, more than ever before, none of them can solve alone.

Yangon -- All politics are local, goes the old aphorism.  Today, we can say that all problems are global.  As world leaders meet at the G8 Summit in Italy, they will have to update their politics to grapple with problems that not one of them can solve alone.  
The last few years have been a cascade of interconnected crises: financial panic, rising food and oil prices, climate shocks, a flu pandemic and more.  Political cooperation to address these problems is not a nicety.  It is a global necessity.  
The intensity of global interconnectedness is stunning.  The H1N1 influenza was identified in a Mexican village in April.  It has now reached over 100 countries.  The collapse of Lehman Brothers last September was transmitted worldwide within days. Soon, even the most remote villages in Africa, Asia, and Latin America were feeling the shock of reduced remittance income, cancelled investment projects, and falling export prices. In the same way, climate shocks in parts of Europe, Australia, Asia, and the Americas contributed to soaring food prices that hit the poor and created instability and hardships in dozens of countries.

No nation or world leader can solve these problems alone.  Every country faces worsening climate impacts that result from worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, not just those within national borders.  A recent US government report, for example, warns that business as usual in climate policy will result in severe droughts in the American southwest, intense storms and flooding in the Gulf of Mexico and torrential rains in the northeast.  US politicians will be answerable, but heading off these dire effects requires global agreement.  
This is why I am calling on the G8 to act on a set of crucial issues over the coming twelve months.  Some are within the purview of the G8 countries; others require global agreement by all UN members.  Either way, the G8 leaders have a special obligation to lead, given past commitments, the size of their economies, their disproportionate contributions of greenhouse gas emissions, and their responsibilities as donor countries.  
First, the G8 and other major emitters of greenhouse gases must intensify their work to seal a deal at the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen in December. That agreement must be fair, scientifically rigorous, and comprehensive. The goal: to limit the global mean temperature increase to two degrees Celsius. Achieving this means global emissions must be reduced by at least 50% by 2050, with the G8 and other industrialized countries committing to emissions cuts of at least 80% from 1990 levels.

In the interim, industrialized countries must make the first step by committing to emission reductions of 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020.  The principles of equity and historical responsibility require no less. That said, developing countries must also move substantially beyond business as usual in cutting their emissions. But they should not have to choose between reducing poverty or reducing emissions. Both are vital.

Any effective accord must help vulnerable countries, especially the poorest of the poor, adapt to climate change, which they did least to cause but suffer from first – and worst.  Sizable funds will be needed to help build climate-resilient economies, transfer green technologies and expand access to clean energy. This support must be additional, not repackaged aid, transparent and simple to access, and directed towards proven interventions.

If the Copenhagen talks are to be a success, world leaders must do more than talk about leadership. They must show it.  That is why I am calling all world leaders to the UN on September 22 for a global summit on climate change. I expect them to be there. Our future is at stake.
Second, the G8 should take the specific steps needed to honor long-standing but unfilled pledges of support to poor countries to help them achieve the Millennium Development Goals.  Back in 2005, the G8 promised to double aid to Africa by 2010. It is now more than $20 billion per year short of that pledge, with just one year to go. The credibility of the G8 is on the line, as the world’s poorest nations are squeezed by financial crisis, climate shocks, and unfulfilled aid promises, all beyond their control.  


Third, the G8 should focus urgent attention on the intensifying global hunger crisis. The UN estimates that the number of chronically hungry people has recently increased by around 150 million people, and that the world’s hungry now stand at 1 billion.  

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This shocking reversal of progress on food security is the result of many factors: climate shocks and crop failures and, of course, the global financial crisis itself. Scientists have sent the world’s leaders a powerful message: the poor and food-deficit regions can grow much more food, by helping their smallholder farmers to get the improved seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation they need to boost productivity.  Food aid is vital in the midst of the current disaster; growing more food in Africa, particularly, is vital for next year and beyond.
Global cooperation was decisive in arresting last year’s financial melt-down.  While the world’s economic situation remains difficult, the benefits of monetary and fiscal cooperation among the major economies have been clear and vivid.  We saw a similarly effective collective response to the H1N1 pandemic. Cooperation works.  
Let us now bring that power of global partnership to bear on climate, poverty reduction and food production. Let us begin an economic recovery that not only is robust but just, inclusive and sustainable—lifting the entire world.  For if we do not do it now, at the critical moment, when will we?

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