Asie de l’Est : une perspective dynastique des conflits régionaux

NEW YORK – L’une des manières d’appréhender les récentes tensions entourant de minuscules îlots perdus en mer de Chine orientale est d’y voir un cas classique d’une politique de pouvoir. La Chine est en train de devenir une grande puissance. Le Japon est plongé dans un marasme économique et la péninsule coréenne reste divisée. Il n’est que naturel pour la Chine de chercher à réaffirmer sa domination historique sur la région. Et il est tout aussi naturel pour le Japon de se sentir nerveux à l’idée de devenir une sorte d’État vassal (les Coréens sont plus habitués à cette situation vis à vis des Chinois).

Etre assujetti à la puissance américaine, comme l’est le Japon depuis 1945, a été la conséquence inévitable d’une guerre catastrophique. La plupart des Japonais peuvent accepter ce fait. Mais être assujetti à la Chine serait intolérable.

Mais étant donné que la politique en Asie de l’Est reste une affaire très dynastique, envisager la situation sous l’angle biographique peut être utile. Shinzo Abe, le Premier ministre japonais, est le petit-fils de Nobusuke Kishi qui fut ministre du Commerce et de l’Industrie du Japon pendant la Seconde guerre mondiale. Emprisonné par les Américains comme criminel de guerre en 1945, Kishi fut finalement libéré sans passer en jugement au début de la Guerre froide et élu Premier ministre, conservateur, en 1957.

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