EEAS/Flickr

冷战还是冷计算?

纽约—乌克兰南部和东部暴力正在升级,并且看不见有什么解决方案,乌克兰危机也因此成为自2001年美国恐怖袭击所引发的后果以来最激烈的地缘政治冲突。美国领导的制裁战略既不能缓和西方与俄罗斯之间的紧张,也无助于陷入重重危机的乌克兰亲西方政府。但是,即使对俄制裁收紧并且乌克兰暴力升级,也绝非第二次冷战的开端。

美国对俄罗斯的侵略行为的应对方针是升级制裁,同时确保美国盟友保持管接。在最新的联合新闻发布会上,美国总统奥巴马和德国总理默克尔宣布了更低的增加制裁新门槛。此前的门槛是俄罗斯采取直接军事入侵;如今,正如默克尔所解释的,如果俄罗斯破坏5月25日的乌克兰选举,“进一步制裁将是无可避免的。”

但默克尔和奥巴马也降低了“进一步制裁”的标准。如今,制裁措施不再是针对俄罗斯经济大部的全面的部门措施——即对俄罗斯实施“伊朗式”制裁——而将逐步升级。选举门槛几乎必然会引发新一轮制裁,但制裁升级程度会更温和、更渐进。

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