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中美贸易战会如何收场?

香港—特朗普政府本月初增加对2,000亿美元的中国产品征收惩罚性关税之举扼杀了美国迅速与中国达成贸易协议的希望。中国政府的反应是对600亿美元的美国产品征收新关税,而美国则威胁对另外3,000亿美元中国产品征新关税。双方似乎都在为持久战做准备,主要原因是美国尚未尝到特朗普对华极限施压政策将给自己带来的苦果。

中国领教特朗普的交易风格已有时日。但直到最近,才开始充分领会特朗普的“美国优先”政策的严重性。美国国务院政策主任基伦·斯金纳(Kiron Skinner)指出了“美国优先”政策的四大支柱:国家主权、对等互惠、责任共担和地区合作。

国家主权和对等互惠是所有国家外交政策的基础,它们是1648年威斯特伐利亚和约的核心。在经历了三十年战争后,各国终于承认主权国家有需要捍卫自身利益,并必须与其它国家在对等互惠的基础上来交往。

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