Comment cibler l'Irak

Dans le débat actuel sur la politique à observer envers l'Irak, deux alternatives extrêmes sont généralement présentées : soit étendre la campagne militaire contre le terrorisme à l'Irak, soit maintenir le statut quo précaire actuel avec ce pays. Des discussions vaines portant sur la reprise des sanctions de l'ONU constituent une autre version de la deuxième alternative - à savoir, ne rien faire. Les deux alternatives sont dérangeantes.

Toutefois, la préparation d'une guerre au sol contre l'Irak - l'achèvement de l'histoire inachevée de la Guerre du Golfe de 1991 - compose une stratégie à haut risque. Les pays arabes, alliés déjà douteux dans la guerre contre leurs homologues musulmans en Afghanistan, seront encore moins dignes de confiance dans une guerre contre leurs homologues arabes. Les Européens, sans parler des Russes, peuvent être modestes. Les chances militaires apparaissent intimidantes.

Néanmoins, laisser le présent statut quo continuer est également problématique. Cela signifie que le peuple iraquien continuera à souffrir - à la fois des brutalités de Saddam ainsi que des conséquences des sanctions découlant de son autorité continue. Cette situation continuera en outre à envoyer le mauvais message aux futurs terroristes : tout vous sera pardonné. La faiblesse perçue des USA après les bombardements de l'ambassade en Afrique Orientale et l'attaque lancée sur le destroyer USS Cole ont sans aucun doute contribué à l'audace des attaques du 11 septembre.

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