Paul Lachine

Cómo vender el reequilibrio global

CHICAGO – En su reunión más reciente en Toronto esta primavera (boreal), el G-20 acordó no acordar. Aunque la economía mundial necesita desesperadamente un reequilibrio, su declaración fue, de manera intencional, lo suficientemente vaga como para ajustarse a cualquier conjunto de políticas internas que los países pudieran elegir. Todos se fueron pensando que habían ganado, pero el mundo en términos generales salió perdiendo.

El comercio mundial está altamente desequilibrado. Los hogares en Estados Unidos, después de haber gastado demasiado, ahora está agobiados por las deudas. Los exportadores en Europa y Asia se han vuelto excesivamente dependientes de las ventas a Estados Unidos y otras economías hoy debilitadas como España y el Reino Unido. Las acciones miopes que se tomaron de ambos lados han ayudado a afianzar un patrón de comportamiento a más largo plazo que sólo dificulta alejarse del equilibrio insostenible de hoy.

Como siempre, el cambio altera el status quo cómodo y los intereses que se benefician de él. Por ejemplo, el lobby inmobiliario en Estados Unidos obviamente no tiene deseos de que se reduzca el respaldo gubernamental al sector de la vivienda, a pesar de que Estados Unidos probablemente tenga mucho más stock inmobiliario de lo que se puede permitir. De la misma manera, el lobby exportador en China no tiene ningún interés en un renminbi fuerte, aunque la intención de China a largo plazo sí es permitir que su moneda se aprecie.

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