Paul Lachine

Wie man die globale Neuausbalancierung verkaufen könnte

CHICAGO: Auf ihrer letzten Sitzung in Toronto in diesem Frühjahr erzielten die G20 über eines Einigkeit: dass sie sich nicht einigen konnten. Obwohl die Weltwirtschaft unbedingt wieder ins Gleichgewicht gebracht werden muss, war die Abschlusserklärung der G20 bewusst so vage gehalten, dass sie jeden innenpolitischen Kurs zulässt, den die unterschiedlichen Länder ggf. einschlagen wollen. Und während so alle Teilnehmer im Gefühl ihres Sieges nach Hause fuhren, gab es einen großen Verlierer: die Welt.

Der Welthandel ist durch enorme Ungleichgewichte geprägt. Die Haushalte in den Vereinigten Staaten leiden, nachdem sie zuerst zu viel ausgegeben haben, jetzt unter ihrer Schuldenlast. Die Exporteure in Europa und Asien sind inzwischen in übertriebener Weise davon abhängig, in die USA und andere jetzt geschwächte Volkswirtschaften wie Spanien und Großbritannien zu verkaufen. Beiderseitiges kurzsichtiges Handeln hat zur Verfestigung eines längerfristigen Verhaltensmusters beigetragen, welches die Abkehr vom heutigen, nicht aufrecht zu erhaltenden Equilibrium nur weiter erschwert.

Wie immer stört der Wandel den behaglichen Status quo und die von diesem profitierenden Interessen. So hat etwa die Immobilienlobby in den USA ganz offensichtlich kein Interesse daran, dass die staatliche Subventionierung des Eigenheimerwerbs reduziert wird, trotz der Tatsache, dass die USA vermutlich einen viel größeren Eigenheimbestand haben, als sie ihn sich leisten können. In gleicher Weise hat die Exportlobby in China kein Interesse an einem starken Renminbi, obwohl es in Chinas langfristigem Interesse liegt, eine Aufwertung seiner Währung zuzulassen.

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