Paul Lachine

Jak „prodat“ obnovení globální rovnováhy

CHICAGO – Na svém posledním summitu letos na jaře v Torontu se skupina G-20 dohodla, že se nedohodne. Ačkoliv světová ekonomika zoufale potřebuje najít novou rovnováhu, společná deklarace byla záměrně natolik vágní, aby se nepříčila jakékoliv domácí politice, pro kterou se jednotlivé země rozhodnou. Všichni odjeli v domnění, že zvítězili, avšak svět do značné míry prohrál.

Světový obchod je značně nevyvážený. Domácnosti ve Spojených státech, které příliš utrácely, jsou nyní zatíženy dluhem. Exportéři v Evropě a Asii se stali příliš závislými na prodeji do USA a dalších momentálně oslabených ekonomik, jako je Španělsko nebo Velká Británie. Krátkozraké kroky na obou stranách navíc pomohly zapustit kořeny dlouhodobějšímu vzorci chování, který jen komplikuje odklon od dnešní neudržitelné rovnováhy.

Změna jako vždy narušuje pohodlný status quo a zájmy těch, kdo z něj mají prospěch. Například realitní lobby v USA očividně nemá zájem na snížení vládní podpory bydlení, a to navzdory faktu, že USA má pravděpodobně mnohem větší bytový fond, než si může dovolit. Stejně tak čínská exportní lobby nemá zájem na silném jüanu, přestože je v dlouhodobém zájmu Číny nechat svou měnu zhodnotit.

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