Paul Lachine

如何推销全球再平衡政策

发自芝加哥——在今春的多伦多G20峰会上,各国领导人所取得的成果就是都重申了自己的观点。虽然世界经济亟待重新平衡,他们所发表的宣言却依然含糊其辞,模棱两可,与任何国家的国内政策都不相违背。最终每个与会代表都带着得胜的心情回国,但在全世界层面来说却是一场惨败。

世界贸易存在着极大的不平衡。曾经过度消费的美国家庭如今债务缠身。欧洲和亚洲又过度依赖对美国以及其他如今被削弱的经济体(比如西班牙和英国)的出口。从前那种只顾眼前利益的互动已经令双方都养成了一种难以更改的长期行为模式,致使双方更难从当今这种不可持续的均衡中脱身出来。

跟往常一样,变革打破了安逸的现状以及随之而来的利益和好处。比如说,虽然美国的房屋数量显然已经超出了其承受能力,但地产界国会游说团却不希望于政府支持房屋缩减计划。同样,中国的出口业界也对强势人民币不敢兴趣,即便最近的升值是符合中国长远利益的。

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