President Dilma Rousseff Igo Estrela/Stringer/Getty Images

如何拯救巴西

圣保罗—巴西政治危机似乎正在走向终结。目前国会众议院投票结果是赞成因违反财政规则弹劾总统罗塞夫,几天后,参议院81名成员将投票决定是否弹劾罗塞夫。如果42人赞成,罗塞夫将被停职最多180天,在此期间由副总统特梅尔(Michel Temer)代行总统职责。如果参议院在此期间没有以三分之二多数确认弹劾,罗塞夫将重新担任总统。但可能性最大的结果是特梅尔将代替罗塞夫履行剩余两年总统任期。

不管接下来发生什么,巴西都没有摆脱困境。其经济状态十分糟糕——这是罗塞夫前任卢拉实施、罗塞夫萧规曹随的民粹主义政策的直接结果。本世纪初,大宗商品繁荣带来了大量现金,卢拉政府开始向消费者和企业提供补贴信用,人为降低能源价格,并以两倍于GDP增长的速度扩大政府支出。结果是公共债务高企,现已高达GDP的70%,赤字也愈演愈烈,目前为接近GDP的11%。

罗塞夫并未承认问题并采取相应的政策,而是据称采用了会计欺诈手段让她的政府在表面上能够满足初级盈余目标,而不必削减社会转移支付,即使大宗商品价格出现了大跌。这让她在2014年获得连任——也把她推向了今天面临弹劾的局面。(罗塞夫曾经领导过的国有石油公司巴西石油身涉大规模腐败丑闻,令她的处境更加窘迫。)

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