Paul Lachine

如何避免萧条

阿姆斯特丹—最新的经济数据表明,大多数发达经济体正在重新陷入衰退,金融市场正在承受自2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭以来最大的压力。我们正面临出现比前一次更可怕的经济和金融危机的风险,而且这一风险还不小——这一次,危机将不仅包括私人部门,还将包括近于破产的主权当局。因此,我们可以做些什么来让新一波经济收缩的后果最小化,并防止深度萧条和金融崩溃?

首先,我们必须接受这一现实:紧缩措施虽然对于避免财政脱轨而言必不可少,但对产出却有着抑制效应。因此,如果欧元区外围国家被迫采取财政紧缩,有条件实施财政刺激的国家就不能首鼠两端,必须停止紧缩。这些国家包括美国、英国、德国、欧元区核心国以及日本。金融业所需要的公共基础设施——基础设施银行也必须建立起来。

其次,由于问题出在过度负债和资不抵债,而不是流动性缺失,因此货币政策效果有限,但信贷宽松(而不是量化宽松)仍是大有裨益的。欧洲央行应该收回升息的错误决策。美联储、日本银行、英格兰银行和瑞士国民银行也应该采取更多的货币和信贷宽松。要不了多久,通胀就将成为央行所面临的问题中最微不足道的哪一个,因为商品、劳务、房地产和大宗商品市场的新一轮不景气将形成通缩压力。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/VADXhSQ/zh;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.