Paul Lachine

如何避免萧条

阿姆斯特丹—最新的经济数据表明,大多数发达经济体正在重新陷入衰退,金融市场正在承受自2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭以来最大的压力。我们正面临出现比前一次更可怕的经济和金融危机的风险,而且这一风险还不小——这一次,危机将不仅包括私人部门,还将包括近于破产的主权当局。因此,我们可以做些什么来让新一波经济收缩的后果最小化,并防止深度萧条和金融崩溃?

首先,我们必须接受这一现实:紧缩措施虽然对于避免财政脱轨而言必不可少,但对产出却有着抑制效应。因此,如果欧元区外围国家被迫采取财政紧缩,有条件实施财政刺激的国家就不能首鼠两端,必须停止紧缩。这些国家包括美国、英国、德国、欧元区核心国以及日本。金融业所需要的公共基础设施——基础设施银行也必须建立起来。

其次,由于问题出在过度负债和资不抵债,而不是流动性缺失,因此货币政策效果有限,但信贷宽松(而不是量化宽松)仍是大有裨益的。欧洲央行应该收回升息的错误决策。美联储、日本银行、英格兰银行和瑞士国民银行也应该采取更多的货币和信贷宽松。要不了多久,通胀就将成为央行所面临的问题中最微不足道的哪一个,因为商品、劳务、房地产和大宗商品市场的新一轮不景气将形成通缩压力。

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