Merkel and Putin Kirill Kudryavtsev/ZumaPress

Eine eurasische Lösung für die Krisen Europas

MOSKAU – Achtzehn Monate, nachdem der ehemalige ukrainische Präsident Viktor Janukowitsch gestürzt und ins Exil getrieben wurde, befindet sich die Krise in der Ukraine jetzt in einer Pattsituation. Die Krim wurde wieder Russland angegliedert (was viele für eine Annektierung hielten); ein Großteil der östlichen Ukraine ist von russlandfreundlichen Rebellen besetzt; und die Beziehungen zwischen Russland und dem Westen sind angespannter als je zuvor seit den frühen Tagen des Kalten Krieges.

Aber kann eine der Parteien behaupten, die Oberhand zu haben? Diejenigen, die die Ukraine gern im Westen verankert sehen würden oder dachten, Sanktionen gegen Russland hätten dort (durch einen Putsch oder öffentliche Proteste) einen Regimewechsel auslösen können, mussten ihre Hoffnungen aufgeben: Präsident Wladimir Putin ist so beliebt wie eh und je. Aber auch diejenigen in Russland, die mit dem sofortigen Zusammenbruch der Ukraine und der Umwandlung ihrer Ost- und Südprovinzen in ein russlandfreundliches „Novorossia“ gerechnet haben, wurden enttäuscht.

Die Tragödie dabei ist, dass der Preis für diese Illusionen sowohl in menschlicher als auch in geostrategischer Hinsicht enorm hoch war – trotz Waffenstillstand hat sich die Zahl der Todesopfer in der Ostukraine seit April 2014 auf über 6.000 erhöht. Es sieht so aus, als seien beide Seiten bereit, „bis zum letzten Ukrainer“ zu kämpfen.

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