Merkel and Putin Kirill Kudryavtsev/ZumaPress

Une solution eurasienne aux crises de l'Europe

MOSCOU – Plus de dix-huit mois après que l'ancien président Viktor Ianoukovitch a été évincé du pouvoir (et contraint à l'exil), la crise en Ukraine est dans une impasse. La Crimée a été réabsorbée par la Russie (dans un acte que de nombreuses personnes considèrent comme une annexion). Une grande partie de l'Ukraine orientale est tenue par des rebelles pro-russes et les relations entre l'Occident et la Russie sont plus tendues que jamais, depuis les premiers moments de la Guerre froide.

Mais qui peut prétendre avoir l'avantage ? Ceux qui voudraient voir l'Ukraine ancrée dans l'Occident, ou imaginent que les sanctions contre la Russie pourraient inciter un changement de régime au Kremlin, par une révolution de palais ou par un soulèvement populaire, ont vu leurs espoirs déçus : la cote de popularité du Président Vladimir Poutine est plus haute que jamais. En Russie, ceux qui prédisaient l'effondrement immédiat de l'Ukraine et la mise en place dans ses provinces orientales et méridionales d'une « Novorossia » pro-russe ont été également déçus.

La tragédie est que le prix de ces illusions a coûté extraordinairement cher en vies humaines (le nombre de morts suite au non-respect du cessez-le-feu en Ukraine orientale est supérieur à 6 000 depuis avril 2014), ainsi qu'en termes géostratégiques. Il semblerait que les deux camps sont prêts à se battre « jusqu'au dernier Ukrainien. »

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