O argumento a favor da Índia

NOVA DELI – Os fãs indianos de críquete são maníaco-depressivos no modo como tratam as suas equipas favoritas. Veneram os jogadores como se fossem deuses quando as equipas jogam bem, ignorando as fraquezas óbvias; mas quando perdem, como acontece a qualquer equipa, a queda é igualmente excessiva e todas as fraquezas são dissecadas. Na verdade, a equipa nunca é tão boa quando ganha, nem tão má quando perde, quanto os fãs a fazem parecer. As suas fraquezas também estão presentes nas vitórias, mas são toleradas.

Tal comportamento bipolar parece aplicar-se também à avaliação da economia da Índia, com os analistas estrangeiros a juntarem-se aos indianos em oscilações entre o excesso de exuberância e a auto-flagelação. Há alguns anos, a Índia não conseguia fazer nada errado. Os comentadores falavam da “Chindia”, elevando o desempenho da Índia ao do seu vizinho do Norte. Hoje, a Índia não consegue fazer nada certo.

A Índia tem graves problemas. O crescimento anual do PIB desacelerou significativamente no último trimestre, para os 4,4%, a inflação de preços ao consumidor é alta e os défices da balança corrente e orçamental no ano passado foram muito grandes. Hoje, todos os comentadores destacam as infra-estruturas pobres da Índia, o excesso de regulação, o sector industrial pequeno e a mão-de-obra que carece de instrução e de competências adequadas.

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