Cómo combatir el estancamiento secular

MILÁN – En los últimos años, gran parte del mundo, especialmente las economías avanzadas, ha estado atascado en un patrón de crecimiento del PIB lento y en baja, lo que llevó a muchos a preguntarse si esto se está convirtiendo en una condición semipermanente -el llamado "estancamiento secular"-. La respuesta probablemente sea que sí, pero la pregunta carece de precisión y, por ende, tiene una utilidad limitada. Después de todo, existen diferentes tipos de fuerzas que podrían estar moderando el crecimiento y no todas ellas están fuera de nuestro control.

Sin duda, es preciso destacar que sería difícil, si no imposible, contrarrestar en el corto plazo muchos de los vientos de frente que destruyen el crecimiento y que hoy enfrentamos, sin poner en peligro el crecimiento y la estabilidad futuros. El resultado de estas condiciones persistentes se puede llamar "estancamiento secular uno" (SS1 por su sigla en inglés).

El primer indicio de que estamos experimentando una situación de SS1 se relaciona con la tecnología. Si como dice el economista Robert Gordon experimentamos una desaceleración de la innovación tecnológica que mejora la productividad, el crecimiento potencial a largo plazo se vería limitado. Pero aún si la innovación no cayera demasiado, o si se volviera a recuperar pronto, la adaptación estructural y los cambios actitudinales necesarios para sacar ventaja de las alzas de productividad concomitante llevarán tiempo.

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