Comment rater la relance

NEW YORK – Certains ont cru que l’élection de Barack Obama allait tout remettre sur pied en Amérique. Parce que ça n’a pas été le cas, même après le vote d’un plan de relance de grande envergure, la présentation d’un nouveau programme visant à gérer le problème sous-jacent des logements, et plusieurs plans de stabilisation du système financier, certains commencent à accabler Obama et son équipe.

Obama, cependant, a hérité d’une économie en chute libre, et n’aurait humainement pas pu renverser la situation dans le cours laps de temps qui s’est écoulé depuis sa prise de fonction. Le président Bush a eu l’air d’un lapin surpris par les phares d’une voiture –�paralysé, incapable de presque rien faire – pendant plusieurs mois avant son départ. C’est un soulagement de constater que les Etats-Unis ont enfin un président capable d’agir, et ce qu’il a commencé va faire une grande différence.

Malheureusement, cela ne suffira pas. Le plan de relance semble conséquent – plus de 2% du PIB par an – mais un tiers est consacré aux réductions fiscales. Et, les Américains se retrouvant face à la menace de l’endettement, à un chômage en rapide augmentation (et au pire système d’allocation chômage des plus grands pays industriels) et à la chute des cours, ils auront tendance à économiser la plus grande partie de ces réductions d’impôt.

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