如何终结希腊悲剧

发自圣地亚哥——据报道,面对希腊危机无计可施的欧洲领导人如今正在考虑一套帮助该国减少外来债务支出的“B方案”。而相对于从前那些试图(以各种名目)向希腊这个早已负债累累的国家增加债务的方案来说,这个方案还是挺受欢迎的。

希腊的公共债务总额已经相当于该国官方GDP的160%,如果要下降到《马斯特里赫特条约》中公共债务不得超过GDP60%的限制条件估计得花上25年。如果这些债务的实际利率为4%(与希腊从欧盟取得紧急贷款利率相近)而希腊年均GDP增长为2%的话,意味着在未来25年内都要取得想当于GDP5.7%的基础财政盈余。这显然是个无法想象的巨大包袱,而希腊也很可能由此陷入长期的经济衰退和社会动荡。

有人或许会反驳说既然希腊拥有一个庞大的地下经济,那么其实际GDP总量显然要比官方数字更大,因此现在给希腊定下的公共负债比率其实被高估的。但由于政府无法向这类地下经济征税,因此在帮助还债方面的作用其实不大。无论在任何情况下,一个迅速下滑的经济体中税收增长的余地都是极为有限的。

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