Wie wir 2009 der Krise entkommen können

WASHINTON, DC – Im Strudel der Ereignisse und Nachrichten, die die aktuelle globale Krise charakterisieren, ist es häufig schwierig, einen kühlen Kopf und das Gespür dafür zu bewahren, was wirklich passiert. Doch wenn man einen Schritt zurücktritt (was an einem Tag, an dem die Börsen geschlossen sind, leichter fällt), wird das Bild deutlicher und somit auch die erforderlichen Maßnahmen.

Ich werde zunächst mit drei Beobachtungen deutlich machen, wo wir heute stehen. Erstens: In den Industrieländern haben wir den schlimmsten Teil der Finanzkrise wahrscheinlich hinter uns. Es gibt immer noch Landminen, von unauffindbaren Credit Default Swap (CDS) Positionen bis hin zu versteckten Verlusten in Bilanzen, doch sind die schwärzesten Tage des eingefrorenen Geldmarktes und der anstößigen Risikostreuung wahrscheinlich vorbei.

Zweitens: Unglücklicherweise hat sich die Finanzkrise in die aufstrebenden Länder verlagert. Die abrupte Umschichtung der Portfolios und der Ansturm auf sicherere Vermögenswerte schaffen beim Überschreiten der Grenzen nicht nur Finanzprobleme, sondern auch Wechselkurskrisen. Fügt man noch die verminderte Produktion in den Industrieländern hinzu, kann man verstehen, dass die aufstrebenden Länder jetzt sowohl unter den höheren Kreditkosten als auch unter dem geringeren Exportbedarf leiden.

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