Comment émerger de la crise en 2009

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Il est difficile, dans la tourmente des événements et des informations qui caractérise la crise financière mondiale actuelle, d’avoir les idées claires et de comprendre ce qui se passe réellement. Mais en prenant un peu de recul (ce qui est plus facile à faire les jours où les Bourses sont fermées), le tableau se précise, ainsi que les mesures politiques nécessaires.

Je voudrais tout d’abord faire trois remarques sur la situation qui prévaut aujourd’hui. Tout d’abord, nous avons, dans les économies avancées, probablement vu le pire de la crise financière. Il reste encore quelques champs de mines, comme les positions inconnaissables des credit default swap ou les pertes cachées des bilans, mais les pires journées des marchés monétaires gelés et des répartitions de risques indécents sont sans doute derrière nous.

Ensuite, et malheureusement, la crise financière s’est étendue aux pays émergents. En passant les frontières, les brutales réallocations de portefeuilles et la ruée vers des actifs plus sûrs ont provoqué non seulement une crise financière, mais également une crise des taux de change. Si l’on ajoute à cela le déclin de la production des économies avancées, on voit comment les pays émergents souffrent à la fois du coût plus élevé du crédit et de la baisse de la demande de leurs exportations.

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