Greece woman on street Michael Debets/ZumaPress

Cómo no pagar una deuda soberana

ITHACA – La política de riesgo calculado sobre las deudas de Grecia ha planteado el interrogante de si el país entrará en default (o cuándo). Sin duda, sería mucho mejor para Grecia y sus acreedores llegar a una solución negociada. Pero ese resultado está lejos de estar garantizado. El gobierno griego a duras penas logró hacer un pago significativo el mes pasado y pagos aún mayores vencen en el transcurso del verano (boreal), empezando en junio con una cuota de más de 1.500 millones de euros de su deuda con el Fondo Monetario Internacional.

Mientras las autoridades griegas consideran sus opciones, harían bien en tener en mente que existen mejores y peores maneras de incumplir el pago de una deuda soberana -especialmente habida cuenta del deseo de los países de reestablecer su solvencia lo antes posible-. En las próximas semanas y meses, sería inteligente que el gobierno griego considerara tres lineamientos:

No echar pestes: el default es doloroso, inclusive si termina resultando la opción correcta en el largo plazo. En medio de todo ese sufrimiento, es tentador apuntar con el dedo. Pero es importante resistir ese impulso. Es mucho más probable que los deudores soberanos tengan que interactuar con los mismos acreedores y actores internacionales en otro momento. Es difícil saber cuánto daño le infligieron los pronunciamientos poco diplomáticos de la Argentina durante su saga de default a sus esfuerzos por abrirse camino en el sistema legal de Estados Unidos; lo que resulta evidente es que su retórica oficial poco meditada no favoreció su causa.

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