John Overmyer

Cómo evitar una recesión global de doble caída

NUEVA YORK – Entre los encargados del diseño de políticas de todo el mundo hay un debate sobre cuándo y cuán rápido suspender el fuerte estímulo monetario y fiscal que impidió que la Gran Recesión de 2008-2009 se convirtiera en una nueva Gran Depresión. Alemania y el Banco Central Europeo están presionando agresivamente por una austeridad fiscal en el corto plazo; a los Estados Unidos les preocupan los riesgos de una consolidación fiscal demasiado rápida.

De hecho, los encargados del diseño de políticas están en una situación sin salida. Si retiran los estímulos monetarios y fiscales demasiado pronto –cuando la demanda privada aún es frágil—existe el riesgo de volver a caer en la recesión y la deflación. Si bien la austeridad fiscal puede ser necesaria en países con déficits y deudas importantes, aumentar los impuestos y recortar el gasto público puede empeorar la recesión y la deflación.

Por el otro lado, si los encargados del diseño de políticas mantienen los estímulos demasiado tiempo, los déficits fiscales descontrolados pueden conducir a una crisis de deuda soberana (los mercados ya están castigando a los países indisciplinados fiscalmente con márgenes de riesgo más elevados). O, si se monetizan estos déficits, la elevada inflación podría presionar a la alta las tasas de interés a largo plazo y asfixiar la recuperación económica.

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