John Overmyer

Как избежать двойной глобальной рецессии

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. В настоящее время среди высших руководителей мирового масштаба идут дебаты по поводу того, когда и насколько быстро надо отказываться от мощных денежных и финансовых стимулов, которые помешали переходу Великой Рецессии 2008-2009 годов в Великую Депрессию. Германия и Европейский центральный банк энергично проталкивают идею более раннего возврата к финансовой строгости; Соединенные Штаты волнуются по поводу риска чрезмерно ранней финансовой консолидации.

На самом деле, лица, определяющие политику, будут виноваты и в том случае, если они откажутся от стимулов, и в том случае, если они не откажутся. Если они откажутся от денежных и финансовых стимулов слишком быстро – когда спрос со стороны частного сектора остается слабым – существует риск скатывания в рецессию и дефляцию. Тогда как финансовая строгость, возможно, и необходима в странах с большим дефицитом и долгом, растущие налоги и снижение правительственных расходов могут усилить отрицательное воздействие рецессии и дефляции.

С другой стороны, если лица, определяющие политику, будут сохранять стимулы слишком долго, бесконтрольный дефицит бюджета может привести к кризису суверенного долга (рынки уже наказывают недисциплинированные в финансовом отношении страны с большими спрэдами по гособлигациям). Или, если этот дефицит будет монетизирован, высокая инфляция может повысить долгосрочные процентные ставки и снова не дать осуществиться экономическому выздоровлению.

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