John Overmyer

Jak se vyvarovat globální recesi se dvěma propady

NEW YORK – Mezi tvůrci globálních politik probíhá debata o tom, kdy a jak rychle ustoupit od rázné měnové a fiskální stimulace, která zabránila proměně Velké recese let 2008-2009 v novou Velkou hospodářskou krizi. Německo a Evropská centrální banka agresivně tlačí na brzké fiskální uskrovnění; Spojené státy se obávají rizik předčasné fiskální konsolidace.

Ve skutečnosti jsou tvůrci politik ztraceni, když budou jednat tak i onak. Jestliže měnovou a fiskální stimulaci zruší příliš brzy, zatímco soukromá poptávka zůstává chatrná, hrozí riziko propadu zpět do recese a deflace. Třebaže fiskální uskrovnění může být v některých zemích s rozsáhlými schodky a dluhy nezbytné, zvyšování daní a osekávání vládních výdajů může zjitřit recesi a deflaci.

Na druhou stranu, budou-li tvůrci politik stimul zachovávat příliš dlouho, překotné fiskální deficity by mohly vést ke svrchovaným dluhovým krizím (už teď trhy trestají fiskálně nedisciplinované země většími suverénními rozpětími). Anebo pokud se schodky monetizují, vysoká inflace může vyšroubovat dlouhodobé úrokové sazby a opět zadusit ekonomické oživení.

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