John Overmyer

如何规避全球经济双谷衰退

纽约——

现今,世界各国的政策制定者们就何时,以何种速度收回强劲的货币和财政刺激政策进行辩论。刺激政策防止了2008-2009年的全球大衰退演变成又一次大萧条。德国和欧洲中央银行正大力推动早期的财政紧缩;美国担心过早的财政整顿会引发一些风险。

事实上,无论决策者们现在是否进行财政紧缩,他们都会遭到斥责。如果他们过早撤回货币和财政刺激政策——私营经济的需求仍旧不稳定——那么经济将有重新陷入衰退和通货紧缩的风险。虽然一些有着大量赤字和债务的国家可能需要财政紧缩,但是提高税收,减少政府支出可能会恶化经济衰退和通货紧缩。

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