Margaret Scott

L’heure de l’action au Moyen-Orient

LONDRES – Face à l’utilisation d’armes chimiques en Syrie, l’annonce d’un sommet d’urgence réunissant cette semaine en Jordanie les responsables militaires américains, britanniques, français, allemands, italiens, canadiens, turcs, saoudiens et qataris est une bonne chose. La politique occidentale se trouve à la croisée des chemins : s’agit-il de rester spectateurs ou au contraire d’agir, de prendre le pas sur les événements ou de se contenter de les subir.

À l’issue des longues et douloureuses campagnes d’Irak et d’Afghanistan, je comprends pleinement la tentation de rester à l’écart de la tourmente, d’observer sans intervenir, de hausser le ton plutôt que de s’engager dans cette démarche difficile voire violente consistant à refaçonner la réalité sur le terrain. Il nous faut cependant penser aux conséquences qu’engendrerait notre inaction plutôt que notre engagement.

Beaucoup se crispent à l’idée d’une intervention. Envisageons néanmoins les retombées futures de notre inertie et de notre hésitation fébrile : une Syrie embourbée dans un carnage de brutalité de la part de Bachar el-Asad et des divers affiliés d’Al-Qaïda, terreau d’un extrémisme infiniment plus dangereux que l’Afghanistan dans les années 1990 ; une Égypte plongée dans le chaos, et un Occident semblant, bien qu’injustement, porter assistance à ceux désireux d’en faire une version sunnite de l’Iran ; et un Iran demeurant lui-même, malgré la présence d’un nouveau président, une dictature théocratique en possession de l’arme atomique. L’Occident s’en trouverait dérouté, ses alliés consternés, et ses ennemis d’autant plus motivés. Il y a là un scénario cauchemardesque, qui n’est cependant pas si exagéré.

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