La euronémesis de los mercados emergentes

BRUSELAS – Las monedas de los mercados emergentes están colapsando y sus bancos centrales se ocupan de ajustar sus políticas, para hacerlas más restrictivas en un intento por estabilizar los mercados financieros de sus países. ¿A quién puede culparse por esta situación?

Hace unos pocos años atrás, cuando la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se embarcó en otra ronda más de “flexibilización cuantitativa”, algunos líderes de los mercados emergentes protestaron enérgicamente. Éstos líderes vieron las adquisiciones abiertas de valores a largo plazo de la Reserva Federal como un intento de maquinar una devaluación competitiva del dólar y temieron que las condiciones monetarias extremadamente expansivas de los Estados Unidos desencadenarían una avalancha de flujos de entrada de “capital especulativo”, forzándolos a subir sus tasas de cambio. Ellos temían que este hecho disminuiría no solamente su competitividad en las exportaciones y pondría en déficit sus cuentas externa, sino que también los expondría a las terribles consecuencias de una repentina suspensión en los flujos de entrada de capital cuando los formuladores de políticas en los Estados Unidos revirtieran el curso de dicha política expansiva.

A primera vista, estos temores parecen haber estado bien fundamentados. El título de un reciente artículo publicado por el Fondo Monetario Internacional lo expresa en pocas palabras: Los flujos de capital son volubles: en cualquier momento y en cualquier lugar [“Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere.”]. El simple anuncio de que la Reserva Federal podría disminuir paulatinamente sus operaciones no convencionales de política monetaria ha conducido a la actual fuga de capitales de los mercados emergentes.

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