新兴市场的欧洲复仇女神

布鲁塞尔—新兴市场货币正在暴跌,它们的央行忙于收紧政策,试图稳定国内金融市场。出现这样的状况谁是罪魁祸首?

几年前,当美联储抛出新一轮“量化宽松”时,一些新兴市场领导人大胜抱怨。他们认为美联储无限期的购买长期债券是在试图造成美元的竞争性贬值,并且担心极端宽松的美国货币条件会导致“热钱”大量涌入,推高他们国家的汇率。他们担心,这不但会削弱他们的出口竞争力,导致他们的对外账户转为赤字;如果美国决策者转变政策方向,这还会造成资本流入突然停止的严重后果。

乍一看,这些担心不无道理。IMF最新论文的标题言简意赅地指出,《资本流是易变的:不论何时,不论何国》(“Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere)。仅仅宣布美联储可能缩减非常规货币政策操作的规模便已导致如今资本逃离新兴市场的局面。

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