Zhang Peng/Getty Images

中国的增长步伐会有多慢?

发自首尔——中国经济在过去几十年中的表现一贯出色。尽管拥有与发达经济体差异极大,沿袭自其共产主义路线的体制,但中国依然在1980年~2015年间成功实现了8.7%的年均人均GDP增长率。其成功的关键再于其独特的“摸着石头过河”战略——逐步测试,实施和调整那些改革和增长促进政策。

但尽管中国的经济发展在许多方面堪称出类拔萃,其增长却并非独一无二的。日本和韩国在经济减速之前也曾通过巨额投资推动下的快速工业化和出口导向政策实现了本国经济的转型。如果中国要应对其当前挑战——尤其是增长大幅减速——的话,就应当参考这些国家的经验。

这三个国家都采取了类似的路径,但所处时期则不同。按人均GDP计,中国落后日本超过40年,落后韩国20年左右。具体而言,日本的年人均GDP增长率在1960年代平均达8.6%,随后在1970~80年代快速下降到3~4%;韩国的GDP增长率从1970~80年代的年均7~8%下跌到2000年的4%;中国持续三十年之久的两位数增长在2010年走到了尽头,目前年均增长不足7%。三个国家的年增长率在人均收入达到8000美元左右就分别开始下降了。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/oN1O1Is/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now