Насколько безопасны ваши доллары?

КЭМБРИДЖ. Китайские чиновники и частные инвесторы по всему миру вслух выражают беспокойство относительно надёжности своих долларовых инвестиций. Поскольку китайское правительство хранит большую часть своих двух-триллионных валютных запасов в долларах, у них есть веские причины сфокусироваться на будущей ценности зелёных бумажек. А инвесторы с меньшими долларовыми накоплениями, которые могут обменять их на другие валюты намного легче, чем китайские инвесторы, вправе спросить себя: может быть лучше вложить средства в недолларовые активы – или даже избавиться от долларов совсем.

Страх относительно будущего доллара нагнетается несколькими различными, но взаимосвязанными опасениями. Продолжит ли доллар свою длительную тенденцию к понижению относительно других валют? Не приведёт ли чудовищный рост государственного долга США, прогнозируемый на грядущее десятилетие и дальше, к инфляции или даже дефолту? Не вызовет ли взрывной рост избыточных резервов коммерческих банков быструю инфляцию на фоне оздоровления экономики?

Но итог таков, что, пока есть о чём беспокоиться, эти страхи преувеличены. Давайте начнём с наиболее вероятного негативного сценария: падение курса относительно других валют. Даже после недавнего восстановления доллара относительно евро его покупательная способность сейчас на 15% ниже относительно широкой корзины основных валют, чем это было десятилетие назад, и на 30% ниже, чем 25 лет назад.

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