Les quatre menaces qui pèsent sur l'économie mondiale

NEWPORT BEACH – Trois ans après la crise financière mondiale, il est difficile de savoir dans quelle direction se dirige l'économie mondiale. Pouvons-nous nous satisfaire de la reprise qui se manifeste dans les pays avancés et de la forte croissance des pays émergents ou devons-nous réagir face à la hausse du prix du pétrole, des chocs géopolitiques au Moyen-Orient et des incertitudes liées à la crise nucléaire au Japon, troisième puissance économique mondiale ?

La première option, la plus rassurante, obtient l'adhésion d'une grande partie de l'opinion publique. Constatant que le pire moment de la crise financière est passé et qu'une dépression mondiale a été évitée, elle considère avec satisfaction le retour à davantage de sérénité et peut-être même de la confiance.

Ce point de vue est basé sur l'idée que ceux qui sont à la traîne vont bénéficier peu à peu de l'effet d'entraînement généré par les segments les plus dynamiques de l'économie mondiale (avec des taux de croissance très différents les uns des autres). Il s'agit des multinationales très rentables qui investissent et recrutent du personnel, des banques qui remboursent le montant des plans de sauvetage dont elles ont bénéficiés, des classes moyennes et supérieures de plus en plus étoffées des pays émergents qui achètent de plus en plus de biens et de services, d'un secteur privé de plus en plus florissant qui verse davantage d'impôts, allégeant ainsi la pression sur les finances publiques de leur pays, et enfin de l'Allemagne, la première puissance économique européenne, qui récolte les fruits de ses années passées à restructurer son économie.

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