占领量化宽松

发自纽黑文——美联储依然在沿用着一个毫无效果且破坏稳定的策略。通过维持其量化宽松政策(QE)——这需要每月购买价值85亿美元的长期资产——美联储无论是在国内还是国外都面临越来越凶险的残局。

如今该政策对全球造成的影响变得显而易见,其中对拥有巨额经常账户赤字的发展中经济体影响尤为剧烈——也就是印度,印尼,巴西,土耳其以及南非。这些国家从量化宽松政策催生的资本流入中受益最大,一旦水闸看似即将关闭,它们也会首当其冲受到压力。当美联储其九月中旬的政策会议上犹豫不决时,这些国家的本币汇率和股票市场也出现了喘息性反弹。

但有一个更加隐蔽的问题就在家门口酝酿。在贷款基准利率接近于零的做法之下,美联储采取了一个根本不同的方法去尝试引导美国经济。它已将其重点从信贷价格转向通过注入宽松政策所需的流动资金去影响信贷周期的数量方面。通过这种做法,美联储其实依托于“财富效应”——很大程度上通过提高股票和房屋价格来实现——作为其稳定政策的最主要传动机制。

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